Forsiden på CIAs nedgraderte oljerapport
De samlede oljereservene i Barentshavet kan bare på russisk side utgjøre hele tretti milliarder fat råolje.
Dette skriver den amerikanske etterretningsorganisasjonen CIA i en rapport fra 1986. CIAs analyser viste at Barentshavets russiske territorier kan inneholde like mye olje som hele Nordsjø-bassenget. I ytterste konsekvens kan Barentshavet skjule svimlende 90 milliarder fat verdifull råolje, like mye som man i 1986 visste at Kuwait hadde avdekket på sine oljefelt.
Rapporten har vært hemmeligstemplet og inneholder detaljerte beskrivelser av mulige russiske planer for utvinning. Bare i den omstridte Gråsonen anslo CIA oljemengdene til å være rundt åtte milliarder fat olje. NRK Finnmark kan i dag offentliggjøre innholdet i rapporten.
NRK Finnmark bringer her originalteksten i deler av rapportens sammendrag. Innholdet i den engelske teksten nedenfor er CIAs ordvalg.
"The Barents Sea has the potential for being a major oil bonanza for the USSR. We estimate that recoverable oil resources in the Soviet portion of the Barents could amount to about 30 billion barrels - about the same amount as that of the North Sea. If proved and developed, these resources would be adequate to support average production rates of 2 million barrels per day (b/d) - about one-sixth of of current Soviet output - for more than 40 years, or 3 million b/d for more than 25 years. No other new oil region in the Soviet Union appears to hold such promise. If Barents Sea oil helps keep Soviet exports to hard currency countries up, and, therefore, imports from the West, the United States could confront a somewhat healthier Soviet economy a decade or so from now than many Western experts currently envision.
Oil production in the Barents could technically begin by 1990 and reach 500,000 b/d or more by the mid-1990s. Actual production levels will depend on the priority the Soviets give to the development of Barents Sea oil and their access to Western technology designed specifically for Arctic conditions.
Although a harsh area, the Barents Sea presents no environmental problems that would make development of oil impossible. Because of the influence of the Gulf Stream, conditions in the Southern Part of the Barents are similar to those in the North Seam an area that has been in production for many years. Conditions in the north are similar to those in the Canadian Beaufort Sea, which is presently being explored by Western firms and will be developed when economic conditions permit.
No breakthroughs in technology will be required to develop the Barents Sea oil. Many types of offshore platforms presently in operation in the North Sea are well suited for operations in ice-free regions of the southern part of the Barents. This technology is available from various West European manufacturers, most of whom would probably be eager to enter the potentially lucrative Soviet offshore market. Given the depressed oil market outlook for the next few years, the Soviets can expect attractive offers from Western manufacturers. The technology needed to exploit the environmentally tougher northern part of the Barents excists in the West and could be provided by Finnish, British, Norwegian, Canadian, or US firms. We believe, however, that any effort to develop the northern Barents is still another 10 to 15 years down the road Development of the Barents Sea oil will have an important impact on the Soviet energy balance in the latter half of the 1990s. Major production from the Barents could begin at a time when output from the primary offshore regions, especially West Siberia, is expected to be in sharp and irreversible decline. A Barents breakthrough would help the Soviets avoid the enormous expense of moving extensively to inefficient enhanced oil recovery techniques in onshore oilfields, shifting their fuel use even more rapidly away from oil, or adjusting their foreign trade to improve domestic oil supplies. Any of these options would probably be more expensive and far more difficult than the admittedly large investment needed to exploit Barents oil resources."